Paper tape/W35487
Metadata indexedOpening Bell · 20 Jul 2026Preliminary working paper

Structural Estimation with Unstructured Data

View at NBER

Summary queued

This paper remains searchable while structured annotation is pending.

ECON CURRENT excludes papers without a reviewed, schema-valid annotation from editorial selection. Public metadata remains available below.

Public abstract

Standard macroeconomic data do not cleanly separate the systematic and nonsystematic components of monetary policy. We show that incorporating unstructured text data into the structural estimation of a DSGE model can sharpen this distinction. We augment a standard state-space model with a non-core measurement block that links structural shocks to time series derived from FOMC transcripts, using a spike-and-slab prior to let the data select which series are informative. In a medium-scale New Keynesian model for the U.S., incorporating text improves predictive performance and materially alters structural inference: the new model estimates a lower response of the policy rate to inflation, higher price stickiness and lower price indexation, implying a flatter and less backward-looking price Phillips curve.